Iraq

Here's what I see happening:

--4th Quarter, '04: We hold Fallujah, but nobody is patting anybody on the back, and unrest in other parts of the country goes on largely unprotested by hopelessly thin coalition forces.

--Ist Quarter, '05: Elections are held, but violence is ugly-- not insane, but pretty darn ugly. Nobody feels that good about them once they're over, since they don't end up changing anything on the ground. Allawi is President. Great-- now what? Insurgents continue to gain momentum. They reenter Fallujah, or create a new one somewhere else. Sunnis continue to face harsher marginalization due to growing Shiite demands for power.

--2nd Quarter, '05: Shiites put up a frontman-- probably Muqtada again, but it doesn't matter who, really. They begin to clamor for the removal of U.S. forces, given the training of a (still trivial) Iraqi army and elections now months behind them. They and the insurgents begin to speak with one voice, and attacks greatly intensify against U.S. forces.

--3rd Quarter, '05: Coup. Shiite leader oust Allawi. The U.S. attempts to rest control. Violence becomes very intense. The U.S. starts seriously considering a draft, but the political will isn't there.

--4th Quarter, '05: Iraq becomes a sister-state to Iran, who make it known that they would defend the new regime if the U.S. pressed their position. The U.S. withdraws forces from Iraq.